Welcome to the 26th edition of Markets, Distilled — your edge on where capital’s flowing across the exponential age.
1. Market Overview:
A. BTC Soars, But Retail Sleeps:
BTC broke $100K, yet Google search trends remain stuck at 2023 levels—when price was $16K. This isn’t a retail rally.
Flows are institutional: ETFs, treasuries, balance sheets. Retail has been flat since April 2024.
The real signal? Track IBIT inflows and treasury buyers like MSTR and Metaplanet.
Source: Google Trends
B. Equity Premium Is At Lows:
The equity risk premium just hit a 20-year low as U.S. treasuries rebound—markets are stretched.
With risk/reward deteriorating, capital may rotate into oversold treasuries, undervalued EM equities, or BTC as a global hedge.
The trade: fade U.S. equity dominance, chase better risk-adjusted upside elsewhere.
Source: Daily Chartbook on X
C. China’s Economic Headwind:
China’s PPI fell –3.3% in May—signaling deepening deflation and likely stimulus.
More liquidity could fuel local equities (MCHI +18.4% YTD) and drive commodity demand as infrastructure spend rises.
The gap between Chinese and U.S. equities may widen, with metals riding the reflation tailwind.
Source: TradingEconomics
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