Welcome to the 24th edition of Markets, Distilled — your edge on where capital’s flowing across the exponential age.
Explore key insights from top minds, emerging trends, and game-changing topics, all streamlined for you.
1. Circle (CRCL):
A. The Stablecoin Proxy:
CRCL, the first pure-play stablecoin stock, surged +343.1% in just 2 days.
Its IPO coincides with the GENIUS bill, which could clarify stablecoin regulation and accelerate adoption.
Investors are front-running the narrative—but at a $21.6B valuation, is the upside priced in?
Source: Yahoo Finance
B. Circle’s 2029 Projection:
Jon Ma pegs CRCL’s upside at $40.8B and downside at $4.4B, driven mainly by PE multiple shifts.
His model assumes 65% USDC supply growth, rising costs (70.3%), and rates falling to 3%. We think it’s fair—but COIN reliance still caps earnings in the near term.
Source: Jon Ma on X
C. Payments - Circle’s Future Catalyst:
At a $21.6B valuation, CRCL’s stablecoin premium looks priced in—no longer asymmetric.
A better entry may come post-lockup on Sept 30 as insiders unlock. The real long-term driver? Circle's cross-border USDC rail.
With $27.6T in 2024 stablecoin volumes—exceeding Visa + Mastercard—CRCL stands to gain from margin-rich payment flows with minimal added cost.
Source: CoinTelegraph
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