Commodity Super Cycle

Markets, Distilled - #28

Welcome to the 28th edition of Markets, Distilled — your edge on where capital’s flowing across the exponential age.

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1. Market Overview:

A. Divergence In SPX:

SPX has bounced hard since April—but it’s retail, not institutions, behind the move. Net fund positioning is down 50% since Nov 2024.

With SPX near all-time highs and global tensions rising, retail could be the first to blink, setting up a pullback at resistance.

Source: The Kobeissi Letter on X

B. TAO Joins The Treasury Trend:

SNPX and OBLG jumped 79% and 25% after moving cash into TAO—but both remain down YoY.

Without sustained token buys, it’s just dilution masked as innovation.

Compared to Metaplanet (BTC) or SBET (ETH), these moves lack firepower—proof the treasury trade loses punch lower on the risk curve.

C. DBC: The Smart Hedge Play

In a market gripped by volatility, DBC offers rare balance—hedging risk while riding consumption upside.

It tracks 14 core commodities, including oil (supply shocks), gold/silver (uncertainty), and copper/aluminum (growth).

In June alone, DBC is up +11.4% vs SPX +0.4%, BTC -2.9%.