Welcome to the 142nd edition of "Crypto, Distilled," your go-to source for staying ahead in the crypto market, three times a week.
Dive into lucid insights from leading minds, trendsetting movements, and groundbreaking topics, all streamlined for you.
Today's Key Insights:
Tesla Integrates With DePIN Network
Microsoft-Backed AI Project Raises $20 Million
Gold Surges, Bitcoin Lags: A Familiar Pattern
Keep An Eye On BTC Dominance - 60% Incoming?
Solana Transaction Fees Hit Multi-Month Low
Beware The Spot ETF Trap In Crypto
1. Market Overview:
A. Weekly Market Recap:
This past week in the crypto market saw mixed results. BTC rose by 1%, ETH dropped by 2%, and SOL increased by 3%.
Among the standout performers were RENDER, IMX, and APT, which surged by 32%, 22%, and 17%, respectively.
On the downside, TON, UNI, and BNB faced declines, falling by 20%, 8%, and 5%.
Source: TradingView
B. Minimal Mentions Of Crypto “Bear Market”:
Despite weak price action in the last two quarters, market optimism persists.
This is reflected in the low frequency of "bear market" mentions across major crypto social media platforms.
Source: KaitoAI
C. Key Shifts In Crypto Capital: Opportunities Beyond BTC
I recently found an insightful article by the Giver on X titled “The Ethical Long: Cycles and Capital Formation”.
It explores the inefficient capital allocation in crypto assets and the market dynamics influencing positions on the margin.
Below are the key takeaways distilled:
Despite Bitcoin’s recent resilience, altcoins are clearly in a bear market.
Historically, OTHERS/TOTAL3 range lows typically signal the start of a bull market. It’s unclear what regime we’re in based on past models.
This suggests that the traditional retail-driven bull market model might be broken, with new regimes—such as an institutional-led crypto bull run—emerging.
Source: TheGiver
2. Technical Analysis:
A. Gold Surges, Bitcoin Lags: A Familiar Pattern
Analyst James Van Straten notes that gold is breaking records, recently using $2,500 as support and rising to $2,510.
In contrast, BTC, or "digital gold," is about 15% below its ATH and has been consolidating for nearly 6 months, unlike gold’s steady climb.
This pattern is familiar. Gold has surged while BTC has consolidated, as seen between 2019 and 2020.
This trend suggests BTC might break out of consolidation when gold’s rally pauses, possibly due to a shift in risk-on sentiment.
Source: CryptoSlate
B. Keep An Eye On BTC Dominance - 60% Incoming?
As highlighted in previous editions, Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) is a crucial chart to monitor.
Why? Bitcoin, as a safe-haven asset in the crypto space, is a strong indicator of market sentiment—risk-on or risk-off.
With looser monetary policy ahead, analyst Benjamin Cowen suggests BTC dominance may top before EOY.
In the last cycle, dominance peaked after rate cuts and QE started. A rise to 60% could signal more downside for altcoins.
Source: Benjamin Cowen
C. SOL/BTC: A Key Market Trend To Watch
The SOL/BTC valuation has emerged as a standout, being one of the best-performing major altcoins against BTC this cycle.
In the 2021 bull market, ETH was the leader, with ETH/BTC soaring over 500% before correcting back to BTC.
Analyst Benjamin Cowen predicts a continued SOL/BTC correction before the end of the year, especially as we approach rate cuts.
However, a bounce in 2025 is possible. Long-term, SOL/BTC may decline again as new networks replace the current leaders.
Source: Benjamin Cowen
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